A propósito de mi réplica a Citoyen sobre los efectos del salario mínimo (primera parte y segunda parte), Kantor me envía esta anotación de Greg Mankiw contestando a Gene Sperling, antiguo asesor de Bill Clinton que defendía una subida del salario mínimo citando el estudio de Card y Krueger.
Mankiw compara a Sperling con un doctor que prescribe una medicamento basándose en un único estudio controvertido que no detecta efectos adversos, ignorando los numerosos estudios que conluyen que sí los tiene.
Por ejemplo, Minimum Wage Effects in the Longer Run, de David Neumark y Olena Nizalova:
Exposure to minimum wages at young ages may lead to longer-run effects. Among the possible adverse longer-run effects are decreased labor market experience and accumulation of tenure, lower current labor supply because of lower wages, and diminished training and skill acquisition. Beneficial longer-run effects could arise if minimum wages increase skill acquisition, or if short-term wage increases are long-lasting. We estimate the longer-run effects of minimum wages by using information on the minimum wage history that workers have faced since potentially entering the labor market. The evidence indicates that even as individuals reach their late 20’s, they earn less and perhaps work less the longer they were exposed to a higher minimum wage, especially as a teenager. The adverse longerrun effects of facing high minimum wages as a teenager are stronger for blacks. From a policy perspective, these longer-run effects of minimum wages are likely more significant than the contemporaneous effects of minimum wages on youths that are the focus of most research and policy debate.
También vale la pena leer este artículo de David Neumark en el Wall Street Journal oponiéndose a la última subida del salario mínimo en Estados Unidos el pasado julio:
Despite a few exceptions that are tirelessly (and selectively) cited by advocates of a higher minimum wage, the bulk of the evidence -- from scores of studies, using data mainly from the U.S. but also from many other countries -- clearly shows that minimum wages reduce employment of young, low-skilled people. The best estimates from studies since the early 1990s suggest that the 11% minimum wage increase scheduled for this summer will lead to the loss of an additional 300,000 jobs among teens and young adults. This is on top of the continuing job losses the recession is likely to throw our way. (...)
There is also evidence that the short-term consequences of minimum wages have long-term effects. The principal sources of an individual's higher earnings are more schooling and the accumulation of experience and skills in the labor market. Unfortunately, increased minimum wages induce some teenagers to drop out of high school and take a job. Moreover, these dropouts take jobs away from the even lower-skilled teenagers who had dropped out earlier. With fewer opportunities to acquire labor-market experience and skills, these teenagers face lower wages as adults.
